Muhammad Ali said you never get knocked out by a punch you see coming. But despite being telegraphed for months, the Russian invasion of Ukraine had that effect on both Germany and France – and they are still wobbling.
The contours of a new landscape are becoming clear: the restoration of the nation-state as a primary actor, and the renewed importance of the working class and “left behind” places in democratic elections. This is connected to the disintegration of globalisation and the emergence of distinct alliances that take ideological as well as regional forms. The dominant factor is that the two main underwriters of globalisation, the United States and China, are no longer aligned. This is leading to a change in the balance of power within Europe.