Financial TimesFinancial Times

The science of forecasting ever more extreme weather

By Henry Mance and David Sheppard

03 Aug 2023 · 12 min read

The world’s weather is presenting a paradox. In many regions, conditions are unprecedented, different to anything seen before. Yet they are also more predictable than ever.

This summer’s extreme heat across Europe and the US was foretold days in advance. Last year, four days before Britain experienced 40C for the first time, the UK’s national weather service, the Met Office, issued a red warning — announcing an 80 per cent chance of record-breaking temperatures.

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