CAMBRIDGE – The global economy this year is full of puzzling surprises. Japan’s GDP growth is currently surpassing that of China, and July retail sales in the United States were double the consensus forecast, despite the US Federal Reserve pursuing one of the most concentrated rate-hiking cycles in decades.
In the United Kingdom, wage growth has risen to an annualized rate of 7.8% and core inflation has remained high, even after 14 consecutive rate hikes by the Bank of England (with more to come). Meanwhile, Brazil and Chile have both cut interest rates, diverging from market expectations that the Fed will keep rates high for a prolonged period.