Preparations for a Long War in Ukraine

Even if Russian troops are able to occupy much of Ukraine in the face of fierce resistance, few expect the fighting to cease.

• Ukrainian troops continue to put up stronger-than-expected resistance to invading Russian forces. Unable to take major Ukrainian cities, Russian forces have taken to indiscriminately shelling them.
• By bombarding civilian areas, the Russian military seems to attempting to terrorize the Ukrainian population into submission. But the strategy, thus far, may well be having the opposite effect.
• Videos posted on social media show unarmed, outraged Ukrainian civilians confronting Russian troops. Even in areas Russian troops now control, Ukrainians have taken to the streets to protest.
• The resistance suggests that even if Russian forces are successful at taking vast swaths of Ukraine’s territory, they will have difficulty holding it.
• Western allies have drastically increased arms and supplies flowing to Ukrainian forces, enabling the resistance to continue.
• Should Kyiv eventually fall, Western allies are also planning to support a Ukrainian insurgency. Russia’s military, in other words, may well find it is bogged down in a quagmire.