The West Warns Russia of a Ukraine Quagmire

Amid escalating fears of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western allies and Ukrainians are gearing up for a long guerrilla war.

• Russia has a great deal of experience being bogged down in costly wars. The Soviet-Afghan War of the 1980’s lasted for a decade before Soviet forces withdrew in the face of a guerrilla resistance.
• Russia has a similar experience with guerrilla resistance in Chechnya, where it fought campaigns against separatist fighters.
• Now, Western allies are warning Russian President Vladimir Putin that a similar experience awaits Russia should he choose to invade Ukraine.
• On Thursday, the UK’s foreign secretary warned Putin he’d find himself in a “terrible quagmire” should he invade.
• No one doubts Russia could quickly take over Ukraine should Putin invade. But it would be much harder to defeat a Ukrainian insurgency.
• Already, Ukrainian citizens in cities across the country are training for a potentially long campaign of urban resistance.
• Western allies are suggesting they are willing to support a potential Ukrainian resistance. On Wednesday, the Biden administration pledged an additional $200 million in military aid to Ukraine.
• This week, the UK sent planes loaded with anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. The aid is meant to convince Putin that, though he could take Ukraine, the cost in blood and treasure would be high.